Yeah I know... I totally have zero street cred when it comes to theses races... but as my Uncle Bruce always says... "I've learned everything I know from books and people. I don't read many books but I know a helluva lot of people." Same here. From the peeps I know, numbers and straight up witnessing it... here's my little State Legislative preview for next Tuesday... or at least what to watch for in my opinion.
WHAT IT IS - Right now the school of thought is... the House is switching and the Senate is gonna get close. Which is sure just to make "Governor Gronstal" really really pissy for a while. Anyways, the good guys are getting a little excited, yet cautiously optimistic. It's been well documented that the State House and Senate have recruited very well. I've heard peeps tell me that this is one of the finer groups of candidates we've seen in a while. So good and in a great year... it has caused Speaker Murphy to even door knock his own district. Yeah.
BELL WEATHER - If you are looking certain races or region to see how well we are doing next Tuesday night in the State House... or to see how big this so called wave is... all you need to look to is Southern Hamilton County... ERRR God's Country, Iowa... And 2 races... House District 9 McKinley Bailey (D) vs. Stew Iverson (R) and Senate District 5, Rich Olive (D) vs. Rob Bacon (R)... "G$, what about Dave Deyoe?" Dude... He's running against an uber lefty... he's fine.
THE REGION AND DISTRICTS - "Why are these your bell weathers? Because you're from there?" No... but you're right, I kind of have a habit of giving love back to the motherland... but that ain't what I'm cookin'. Look, Southern Hamilton County is a Lean Republican area. Straight up by the numbers in voter registration. These Rs are very similar to what I think of Dallas County Rs. They are your Republican type of Republicans. But here comes the rub... a very unique challenge for these two races...
THE INCUMBENTS - Rich Olive and McKinley Bailey. Both Democrats... some would say moderate Dems. How the hell are Democrats winning in an area that is and should be considered safe R? Both came into office on a D wave. Bailey bested George Say-I-Corn Eichorn and Olive barely... just barely bested Jim Kurtenbach. "So what, they came in a D wave... how did they win R precincts and districts?" Family... pretty simple. For Bailey, while he has the Southwest part of Southern Hamilton County, he's a Webster City kid. And kind of part of a legacy. His father sits on the Board of Supervisors, with my Uncle Dave. So, with a last name and a family history in local and Democrat politics... that's not gonna hurt ya when you need to run up the score where need to. Plus his military profile suits him well when runnin in with Rs.
Then you have Rich Olive. Pretty solid name ID from Story City... but how the hell is he over performing in Lyon Township (includes city of Jewell) and other parts of Southern Hamilton County? If all politics are local, then in God's Country... all politics is family. Rich's better half, Marian, belongs to a very well liked and a very well respected family back home... and like every other county in Iowa, back home in God's Country... everyone has (what seems) like a million cousins. Or cousins with other cousins... you catch my drift. "Oh G$, surely you jest this is how they win." Explain to me why in a few households in Jewell have most of the R yard signs... and an Olive one? Yeah. I know....
SO DO WE HAVE A CHANCE IN THIS BATTLEGROUND? - Awe hell yes we do. Stew is doing very well. His Wright County peeps will be there... plus he's be working hard. Also look at Bacon (epic name BTW). Working hard as well... this is where the wave helps the most. My point with this entire post... is that... if the wave is here this cycle... and it seems it is. These races will tell us. Sure, we are going to have upsets in other districts... but with the obstacles and resources that have been put into both... we're gonna see what happens. Good news is... I'm hearing some good stuff. So hold on to your hats friends... this one is gonna get wild next Tuesday... Got another area I wanna chirp about... more on that soon. Until then... Stay thirsty my friends... and here's a little something to bob yeh heads to while you get your GOTV on...
WHAT IT IS - Right now the school of thought is... the House is switching and the Senate is gonna get close. Which is sure just to make "Governor Gronstal" really really pissy for a while. Anyways, the good guys are getting a little excited, yet cautiously optimistic. It's been well documented that the State House and Senate have recruited very well. I've heard peeps tell me that this is one of the finer groups of candidates we've seen in a while. So good and in a great year... it has caused Speaker Murphy to even door knock his own district. Yeah.
BELL WEATHER - If you are looking certain races or region to see how well we are doing next Tuesday night in the State House... or to see how big this so called wave is... all you need to look to is Southern Hamilton County... ERRR God's Country, Iowa... And 2 races... House District 9 McKinley Bailey (D) vs. Stew Iverson (R) and Senate District 5, Rich Olive (D) vs. Rob Bacon (R)... "G$, what about Dave Deyoe?" Dude... He's running against an uber lefty... he's fine.
THE REGION AND DISTRICTS - "Why are these your bell weathers? Because you're from there?" No... but you're right, I kind of have a habit of giving love back to the motherland... but that ain't what I'm cookin'. Look, Southern Hamilton County is a Lean Republican area. Straight up by the numbers in voter registration. These Rs are very similar to what I think of Dallas County Rs. They are your Republican type of Republicans. But here comes the rub... a very unique challenge for these two races...
THE INCUMBENTS - Rich Olive and McKinley Bailey. Both Democrats... some would say moderate Dems. How the hell are Democrats winning in an area that is and should be considered safe R? Both came into office on a D wave. Bailey bested George Say-I-Corn Eichorn and Olive barely... just barely bested Jim Kurtenbach. "So what, they came in a D wave... how did they win R precincts and districts?" Family... pretty simple. For Bailey, while he has the Southwest part of Southern Hamilton County, he's a Webster City kid. And kind of part of a legacy. His father sits on the Board of Supervisors, with my Uncle Dave. So, with a last name and a family history in local and Democrat politics... that's not gonna hurt ya when you need to run up the score where need to. Plus his military profile suits him well when runnin in with Rs.
Then you have Rich Olive. Pretty solid name ID from Story City... but how the hell is he over performing in Lyon Township (includes city of Jewell) and other parts of Southern Hamilton County? If all politics are local, then in God's Country... all politics is family. Rich's better half, Marian, belongs to a very well liked and a very well respected family back home... and like every other county in Iowa, back home in God's Country... everyone has (what seems) like a million cousins. Or cousins with other cousins... you catch my drift. "Oh G$, surely you jest this is how they win." Explain to me why in a few households in Jewell have most of the R yard signs... and an Olive one? Yeah. I know....
SO DO WE HAVE A CHANCE IN THIS BATTLEGROUND? - Awe hell yes we do. Stew is doing very well. His Wright County peeps will be there... plus he's be working hard. Also look at Bacon (epic name BTW). Working hard as well... this is where the wave helps the most. My point with this entire post... is that... if the wave is here this cycle... and it seems it is. These races will tell us. Sure, we are going to have upsets in other districts... but with the obstacles and resources that have been put into both... we're gonna see what happens. Good news is... I'm hearing some good stuff. So hold on to your hats friends... this one is gonna get wild next Tuesday... Got another area I wanna chirp about... more on that soon. Until then... Stay thirsty my friends... and here's a little something to bob yeh heads to while you get your GOTV on...
